(Photo credit: Amy Irvin, 38 Photography)

(Photo credit: Amy Irvin, 38 Photography)

Early Impressions of Ivan Provorov

With 23 games under his belt at the NHL level, it is time to start looking at early impressions of Ivan Provorov. Provorov was drafted in 2015 with the 7th overall selection and was expected to make an impact at the NHL level.

Now, 23 games into his rookie season, let’s see if he has lived up to the hype. As I wrote back in September, he was projected on NHLE’s to score 25 points.

provy-at-23-games

Point-wise, Provorov is on pace for 32 points in 82 games on a strict point per game pace from early this season which would eclipse his expectations by 28%, which is a huge jump. So, this begs one important question, is the production sustainable?

Via Hockey-Reference

Via Hockey-Reference

When it comes to possession metrics and PDO, Provorov drives possession to a slight degree relative to his teammates, and his PDO indicates he is actually underperforming in terms of scoring. A good portion of this is a result of Mason and Neuvirth having slow starts to the season, but a 6.8 On-Ice SH% is a bit low as well, so it’s fair to expect Provorov may actually increase his scoring pace as he settles into the season and grows as a player in the NHL.

Via HockeyViz

Via HockeyViz

In terms of effects on his teammates, Provorov has been someone who has helped drive play. He’s had a profound effect on Dale Weise and a very solid effect on Matt Read and Sean Couturier. Oddly enough, he drags down Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds, but overall, his possession game is quite solid.

As of this writing, per Hockey-Reference, Provorov ranks third among the Flyers defenders in average time on ice per game, so he’s logging 2nd pair minutes in an overall sense. As a second pair defender, his numbers show he is succeeding.

So, like Konecny, Provorov should actually increase production as the season goes on and he gets better.

Even if he hits a bit of a wall, he’s ahead of his expected pace, so in the end Ivan Provorov is having a very solid season. He may not have the offensive excitement of Shayne Gostisbehere last year, but Ivan Provorov is quite the solid NHL defender and his future is bright.