Photo: Frank FImmano

Photo: Frank FImmano

Fixing Ivan Provorov

Ivan Provorov has had a slow start to the 2018-19 season. After playing the final playoff game of 2018 with an injured shoulder that heavily hindered him, he has yet to rebound through more than a quarter of the new season.

 

Is there something wrong with him? Or is this a funk he can pull out of with some more patience.

 

                                       --- Regular Season ---  ---- Playoffs ----
Season   Team                        Lge    GP    G    A  Pts  PIM  GP   G   A Pts PIM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2013-14  Cedar Rapids RoughRiders    USHL   56    6   13   19   32  --  --  --  --  --
2014-15  Brandon Wheat Kings         WHL    60   15   46   61   42  19   2  11  13  10
2015-16  Brandon Wheat Kings         WHL    62   21   52   73   16  21   3  10  13  14
2016-17  Philadelphia Flyers         NHL    82    6   24   30   34  --  --  --  --  --
2017-18  Philadelphia Flyers         NHL    82   17   24   41   20   6   0   3   3   0
2018-19  Philadelphia Flyers         NHL    23    2    5    7   10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         NHL Totals                        187   25   53   78   64   6   0   3   3   0

Current statistics as of 2018-11-27

 

His boxcar stats so far, pace to 25 points in 82 games, which would be his lowest total of his 3 year NHL career. However, is that a factor of fluky percentages or is there a dramatic drop off that needs to be fixed?

 

Cors Cors PDO PDO PDO PDO PDO Zone Zone
Season Age GP TOI CF% CF% rel oiGF oiSH% oiGA oiSV% PDO oZS% dZS%
2016-17 20 82 1431.8 49.4 -2.7 50 7.4 56 91.4 98.8 47.8 52.2
2017-18 21 82 1610.6 49.3 -0.1 87 10.7 64 91.8 102.6 46.9 53.1
2018-19 22 23 442.3 48.8 -4.8 21 9.1 22 90.3 99.4 42.1 57.9
Career 187 3484.6 49.3 -1.8 158 9.2 142 91.5 100.7 46.6 53.4
Provided by Hockey-Reference.comView Original Table
Generated 11/27/2018.
This season, Provorov is running a 99.4 PDO, mostly dropped by a 90.3 On-Ice Save% while On-Ice Shooting is 9.1% compared to his career average of 9.2%. As such, the Flyers offence in terms percentage, is performing basically on par with Provorov’s career average.
However, Dave Hakstol has heavily changed the deployment of Provorov this season. He is now seeing a career high 57.9% Defensive Zone Starts compared to 52.2% his rookie year and 53.1% last season. The 4.8 percentage point change is basically a 9% raw shift in Ozone vs Dzone starts.  This is a fairly significant change as Provorov is now being tasked with being the shut down hard minutes defender. The lack of offensive zone time at 5v5 is going to mean fewer points and spending more time in the defensive zone means more visuals of bad defense due to clustering of events in a shorter amount of time.

Via HockeyViz

Provorov’s results are slightly in the bad quadrant, but he does get high event results when paired with Gudas. But hopefully this is a result of deployment and not talent.
In short, Provorov probably is not seeing any real drop off in talent. If anything, he’s playing minutes that are designed to quash his offensive talent, all while clustering defense into shorter charts. And on top of all that, Robert Hagg is also a second year player in his own right, so he will make his own mistakes.
This is not saying the Ghost-Ivan pair didn’t struggle, they ideal deployment of the defense involves tweaking the minutes to better suit the on ice results of all six defenders they have available.