Last week yielded mixed results in my college spread picks. I called a big upset of Cal over Texas, but an Oregon boycott of extra points and a late garbage touchdown by Ole Miss cost me two picks. I went 3-3, but could of easily gone 5-1.
This week won’t have any many playoff implication games as last week did, but it does feature three top 10 teams facing opponents capable of beating them on paper and four games featuring two top 25 teams facing off. It’s a great week of college football as we enter the conference schedule portion of the season. Less games showcasing Alabama against Whiskeyville A&M(although Bama does host elite Kent State this week) and more conference rivalry games.
#12 Georgia at #23 Ole Miss(-7): This game screams let down for Georgia. They are riding high after a 3-0 start while Ole Miss has two early season losses against really good teams, in jeopardy of starting 1-3. I like the Rebels at home, in a game they have to have. Georgia has a freshman quarterback, a new head coach and haven’t been tested by a team as good as Ole Miss. Also look at that line. Vegas giving 7 points to a team ranked 11 spots lower with a 1-2 records tells me that they know something.
#11 Wisconsin at #8 Michigan State(-3.5): I love Michigan State in this game. They have the superior roster, are at home and have more stability at quarterback and head coach. Their guys have been in these games more often and are more deserving of their high ranking. Wisconsin is 11th in the country because they survived a sloppy LSU team that refuses to develop a passing game. I think the Badgers are a decent team and probably wins their Big Ten division over Iowa and Nebraska, but they will be over-matched in this one.
#19 Florida(+5) at #14 Tennessee: Every year we talk about Tennessee turning that corner and becoming an SEC contender again and every year they disappoint. If they have to win this game to achieve that it’s not happening. Florida’s defense is loaded and their offensive line is maybe the most physical in the conference, which is really saying something. Even if you don’t like the Gators to win this game, you have to believe the game will be defensively dominated, low-scoring and sloppy. Florida getting +5 makes me feel really good about this pick.
Penn State(+16.5) at #4 Michigan: I have been a diehard Wolverine fan since I was a little kid, but I can take a step back as a fan and see that Michigan is a little overrated. The secondary is very vulnerable over the middle and the offense has gotten to slow starts in all three games. I don’t think they lose this game, but I think Penn State keeps this game closer than this line. Penn State’s offense hasn’t been an issue this season and they will score enough to avoid an embarrassing blowout.
#7 Stanford(-7) at UCLA: The Bruins have been a major disappointment for me so far this season. Lead by quarterback Josh Rosen, probably the top prospect in the 2018 NFL Draft, they lost to Texas A&M, survived BYU and played a so-so game against football power UNLV at home. I thought they had a chance to take control of the PAC-12 this year, but I don’t see that happening after what they have shown after three games. In this game, Stanford has the superior defense and a player in Christian McCaffrey who can win this game either by carrying the offense or opening things up for his teammates.
#17 Arkansas(+6.5) at #10 Texas A&M: The most exciting game of the year happened two weeks ago when Arkansas went on the road and beat formerly ranked TCU in a 41-38 thriller. I like the more battle-tested Razorbacks against a Aggies team that has over-achieved so far this season. Remember three weeks ago we were talking about whether or not A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin would still be their head coach a year from now. The Aggies have had success running the ball early in the year, but Arkansas is the more physical game and they should win, even on the road in a really brutal place to play.