Coming into training camp, Travis Konecny was a hyped prospect and for good reason as discussed here on more than one occasion.
He’s a top forward in the making, and spending time with Sean Couturier and Jake Voracek has given him every chance to succeed and he’s done well with it.
As I wrote this past summer,
Konecny had 104 points in 62 games or 1.677 point per game ratio. This translates to .537 points per game in the NHL or 44 points per 82 games. This means Konecny is easily a second line right wing in terms of scoring.
As of right now, let’s check in on his progress:
With 11 points in 18 games, Konecny is currently pacing for 50 points in 82 games, or slightly ahead of his NHL-E rating. However, this doesn’t mean he’s better than his NHL-E suggests.
When looking at his advance metrics, Konecny’s strengths show in his 53% Corsi For, and +1.1 Relative Corsi. When he’s on the ice, play drives the right way. His PDO however is concerning, as his on-ice shooting is running rather high at 11.6%. While the save percentage portion should correct itself over time as Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth find their games, his On-Ice Shooting should correct itself to a more normal rate, as it does, his scoring will drop and he will likely finish closer to the season expected 44 points.
Konecny’s With or Without You (WOWY) Chart shows he’s on the “good” side of possession with everyone except for noted possession black holes Andrew MacDonald and Nick Schultz. So, he’s on the right track to being a solid player.
In the end, Konecny’s early season play is exactly where it should be based on the statistical analysis of NHL equivalencies. If this is the start of where he is as a player, it’s not unreasonable to think that Konecny-Couturier-Voracek is a 1B line behind the Schenn-Giroux-Simmonds unit.