Photo credit: Amy Irvin (38Photography)
Just like the previous prospect that was projected in Rob Zepp, Petr Straka has also already made his NHL debut. During his brief callup, Straka played 3 games nabbing a pair of assists. Obviously 3 games isn’t enough of a sample to draw any conclusions from, but based on his AHL and QMJHL play, it is possible to figure out what the future might hold for Straka.
The best method to project a prospect is to look at NHL-equivalency ratings. This makes it possible to project scoring equivalencies between leagues when rating players as they jump up to the NHL. This piece by Gabriel Desjardins sets forth the model that will be used.
For an updated quick look, Rob Vollman supplies the following summary:
So, with Vollman’s model: a QMJHL scorer is good .26 points per game from the Q to the NHL, while Desjardins model says an AHLer in his age 22 season carries a .47 points per game ratio from the AHL to the NHL.
Looking at Straka’s scoring in the QMJHL, we see he had a point per game draft season and 1.49 point per game overage season, this likely indicates he had some massive PDO variance in his 4 years in Junior, while his games played totals show he likely battled some injuries. To attempt to compensate for those variables, instead of using a single season, we can run the NHLE on his scoring total in the QMJHL.
Straka was good for .98 points per game in Junior with 208 points in 212 games. This comes out to .255 points per game in the NHL or 21 points over 82 games.
In the AHL, Straka has amassed 44 points in 99 AHL games or .44 (repeating) points per game. This comes out to .209 points per game in the NHL or 17 points per 82 games.
Where does a player who scores 17-21 points fit in on an NHL roster. To answer that, we must consult this forward scoring chart that outlines how players fit as scorers.
As Straka is a right wing, he’s hovering right around an average third line right wing’s production. Given the Flyers have Voracek, Simmonds and Matt Read as right wings already and a glut of centers in Giroux-Lecavalier-Brayden Schenn, Laughton, Lecavalier, Couturier, Umberger forcing some of them out of position every game, Straka’s unlikely to crack the Flyers lineup as anything more than an injury fill in for the near future.