Projecting Prospects: Tyrell Goulbourne

Photo credit: Amy Irvin (38Photography)

Photo credit: Amy Irvin (38Photography)

One of the Flyers prospects who took a big jump forward this season was Tyrell Goulbourne. The overage forward saw a significant jump in his scoring coming out of the WHL this past season.

For the first time in his Junior career, he broke 20 goals this past season. He finished the season with a .726 point per game ratio which is not exactly impressive for a forward. Goulbourne is not ready for the NHL next season, but in fact, should spend some time with the Phantoms or possibly even the Reading Royals of the ECHL. He’s likely going to need the time to develop any hope of a scoring touch in the NHL.

That said, as Gabe Desjardins has shown, the implied WHL-AHL-NHL is 0.7 points per game. Given that it is safe to assume that Goulbourne is heading to the AHL, this is how we’ll project his scoring. Goulbourne’s .726 WHL points per game translates under this model to 0.51 points per game in the NHL or 41 points for his ceiling. The observed .65 equivalency gives Goulbourne a 38 point NHL expectation. His WHL to NHL direct calculation is 16 points using Vollman’s updated chart.

Realistically, Goulbourne’s probably closer to the 16 point range than the 41 point range. In practice, Goulbourne should knock one, or both of Zac Rinaldo or Ryan White out of a job by 2017. Given the NHL’s trend away from fighters and agitators in favor of four lines who can play, Goulbourne hopefully will find himself a roster spot on the fourth line especially if his 16-20 points come with solid penalty kill ability.

He’s probably never going to project as a top 9 forward, but all in all, he should likely be someone who comes in, sticks around and moves on like Tye McGinn before him. Given McGinn’s scoring was slightly higher in the much more offensively oriented QMJHL, this probably is a realistic look at what Goulbourne will be. The worst case scenario is Goulbourne never puts it together in the professional ranks and becomes a career ECHL player.

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