Do You Need Luck To Win At Sports Gambling?
One of the most popular questions new gamblers have about sports betting is regarding the element of fortune. If you have never bet on sports before you may be tempted to believe that winning is only possible if you get super lucky and the betting sites have rigged it against the players but is that really true? In this article, we are going to explore the role of luck and skill in sports gambling. Let’s get started!
Fortune plays a substantial role in the outcome of individual wagers you make. However, over the long term, it does not matter at all. For example, if you have a 5% edge on the sportsbook you have a decent chance of being down money after making 10 wagers due to variance and fortune but the chance of you losing money after 10,000 wagers is absolutely minuscule.
Now of course if you don’t have an edge on the sportsbook and have a negative expected outcome you would have to get extraordinarily lucky to be a winner after making a large number of wagers. This is why 98% of sports bettors lose money over the long term and the remaining 2% are professionals who managed to create an edge through developing a winning strategy.
The type of wager you make also influences the need for fortune. Some wager types have almost no chance of winning such as big parlays featuring 10 or more bets. To win one of these wagers you have to get very lucky which is why sportsbooks offer incredibly high odds.
Can You Beat Sportsbooks Using Skill?
There are thousands of professional sports players from around the world who use their skills to outsmart and beat sportsbooks. While it is not easy to beat the sportsbooks over the long term it is possible if you are able to develop the right strategy.
Unlike casino games that have no strategy and a fixed house edge, sports gambling is a dynamic environment where gambling sites have to make predictions about the future results of sports events. Often these predictions are incorrect and professionals make their money by identifying these incorrect predictions.
The way professional sports gamblers succeed is through making more accurate predictions than the gambling sites. They do this through uncovering inside information, having a deeper understanding of a particular sport, or using sophisticated models that are able to convert statistics into accurate predictions. For example, you may be an expert in Finnish ice hockey as you played in the league, know many players or religiously follow the sport. Handicappers who don’t know the league well and rely heavily on data models may set decent odds but they won’t be as accurate as your insider knowledge. Developing insider knowledge works best for sports and leagues that are niche and there is a limited amount of public information on. Or maybe you are a math genius and are able to create your own model which outperforms the one used by the betting sites. If you are able to excel in any of the three aforementioned areas you too can beat the sportsbooks.
Time To Test Your Fortune And Skill By Wagering!
Now you understand that fortune will influence the result of your individual wagers but won’t affect your profit and loss over the long term, it is time to make some bets! If you want to increase your chance of winning you should stick to wagers that have a high likelihood of happening or develop a winning strategy that lets you generate an edge. Good luck!